Using statistics available from the a website you can download all the results day-by-day from virtually any football league in the world. Then you can study the statistical analysis on the results for each league that you are interested in for the whole of the current season to give, for example:-
% of matches under and over 2.5 goals.
% of matches with each number of goals from 0-7 % of matches with the ten most frequently observed scores, in descending order.
This information on its own can be very useful, earlier this season I noticed that there were practically no games in the French League 1 with more than 2.5 goals, so I was making money backing the unders on at about 1.8 on each game. Eventually, everyone noticed the goal famine in France, and by Xmas the unders price had collapsed to about 1.5-1.6 for most games, not only that; more games were going over 2.5 goals. I made a lot of money out of it from Sep-Dec, but gave up after the pro’s moved in, and the value had gone.
The system in this section is based on another feature of the – its forecasting. You can select forthcoming games (in any league), and a % likelihood of each result is given. For example, I am looking at it today and for this upcoming Man Utd v Arsenal game the prediction is:
Man Utd 60%, Draw 19%, Arsenal 21 %
These %ages can readily be converted into predicted decimal odds using the formula :- Odds = 100/%age.
So for this game the predicted odds are Man Utd 100/60 = 1.66, Draw 100/19 = 5.26, Arsenal 100/21 = 4.76. The current odds on Betfair are Man Utd 2.2, Draw 3.3, Arsenal 3.95 Most of you will have guessed where this is heading by now!! The system will comprise 2 filters, firstly a result with a > 50% chance as calculated by the website and secondly the price must be more than 20% greater than the predicted price. So, in this example Man Utd are the pick (>50%), and the actual price is 2.2/1.66 = 1.32 times or 32% more than the predicted price. This is a great example of value betting, you are backing something with a greater than 50% chance of winning at price more than 20% greater than the probability. In the example above, in old money you’re getting 6/5 about a 4/6 shot. If you had one of these every day then soon you would be a millionaire. I cannot think of any other example of where the predicted and actual odds can be compared in this way with such mathematical precision.
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